The media reports that Canada and India are currently taking measures aimed at reducing the level of diplomatic tension between the countries, as Ottawa and New Delhi seek to strengthen trade ties at a time when their economies will have to cope with the challenge of tightening the United States trade policy in the context of tariffs on goods imported into the US.
The journalists, citing insiders who used the right of anonymity, released information according to which Canada and India are confidentially negotiating to send back envoys after tit-for-tat expulsions last year.
In the context of restoring cooperation between the countries, it is significant that Canada’s intelligence chief Daniel Rogers participated in an intelligence conclave hosted by India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval last week in New Delhi. Also, the insiders referred to by the media claim that it should not be ruled out the possibility that the Prime Minister of the South Asian country, Narendra Modi, will meet with his Canadian counterpart on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in June in Alberta. India is an observer of the G-7.
The sharp deterioration of relationships between Ottawa and New Delhi began in September 2023. Then-Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau accused Indian officials of involvement in masterminding the murder of prominent Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was a Canadian citizen. Narendra Modi’s government has denied the allegations. New Delhi called the mentioned statements by Ottawa absurd. Hardeep Singh Nijjar was killed in British Columbia.
Canada’s new leader Mark Carney took office this month. According to a Canadian official quoted by the media, against the mentioned background, an opportunity has formed to reboot relationships between New Delhi and Ottawa. This insider underlined that Canada has been striving for several months to improve the specified relationships. At the same time, it was underlined that, in the relevant context, Indian respect for Canadian laws is an extremely important issue for Ottawa. The official noted that the relevant approach has not changed after Justin Trudeau left office.
The movement of Canada and India towards more friendly relationships is, to a certain extent, a reaction of the two countries to the circumstances of the current configuration of the geopolitical reality. In this context, the most important impact factor is that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has targeted higher tariffs on New Delhi and Ottawa. India and Canada expect their economies to face jolts when the new duties come into effect on April 2. It is worth noting that such a reaction to the tightening of Washington’s trade policy is not an isolated one. According to media reports, many countries are currently seeking to strengthen and expand cooperation with economic partners to offset the negative effects of the Donald Trump administration’s tariff measures. The mentioned measures will be particularly painful for those states that rely heavily on exports. High tariffs mean lower trade volumes with the United States.
Mark Carney, during a conversation with reporters in the first half of the current month, stated that Canada would seek to diversify its trading relationships with like-minded countries. In this context, the possibility of rebuilding cooperation with India was highlighted separately. Mark Carney made the corresponding statement a few days before he won a race to succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party.
At the same time, certain frictions between Ottawa and New Delhi continue. This week, media reported that Indian agents allegedly meddled to support the campaign of Pierre Poilievre to become Conservative leader in 2022.
Pierre Poilievre dismissed the mentioned statements, noting that there is no evidence that he or his inner circle was aware of the alleged effort. The media also claimed that India was trying to cozy up to politicians of all parties. The South Asian country’s Ministry of External Affairs did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.
A team of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police visited New Delhi to meet India’s federal anti-terror and anti-money laundering officials in January. This was reported by the media, citing insiders. The journalists’ informants claim that the two sides discussed organized criminal gangs and the Sikh separatist movement.
In October, Justin Trudeau accused Indian diplomats of supporting criminal activities against Canadians on Canadian soil. The RCMP scaled up the accusatory rhetoric, claiming the involvement of diplomats of the South Asian country in numerous homicides and extortion.
New Delhi refused to waive the officials of their diplomatic immunity for questioning. After that, Canada expelled the Indian high commissioner and five other officials. As part of the retaliatory measures, New Delhi expelled six Canadian diplomats in addition to the 41 officials ousted in 2023 due to accusations of murdering Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
The volume of trade between India and Canada is small. In the fiscal year of the South Asian country, which ended in March 2024, the corresponding figure was $8.4 billion. Canada supplies India with potash, a fertilizer that is critical for the agricultural sector. Ottawa also exports timber, paper, and mining products to the South Asian country. India supplies pharmaceuticals, gems, jewelry, textiles, and machinery to Canada.
Canadian pension funds, with a cumulative investment of $55 billion, have made financial injections into Indian sectors, including infrastructure, financial services, and renewable energy. Negotiations on a trade pact broke off in 2023.
Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, told reporters last week that the downturn in India-Canada relationships was caused by the license that was given to the extremist and secessionist elements in that country. It was also noted that New Delhi hopes to rebuild ties with Ottawa based on mutual sensitivity and trust.
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