Analysts believe global QR payments will exceed $8 trillion by 2029, driven by the standardization of national QR schemes and Account-to-Account (A2A) payment initiatives.
A recent Juniper Research study revealed that the volume of QR code-enabled payments worldwide will grow by 50% from $5.4 trillion in 2025 to reach about $8T by 2029.
However, the popular payment method will face increasing competition from NFC-enabled transaction alternatives. In particular, the growth of NFC payments may be facilitated by Apple’s opening up of third-party Near-field Communication (NFC) access. This statement may be particularly true for North America and Europe, where iOS devices are dominant.
The tech giant introduced a significant policy change in 2024 with the release of iOS 18.1 in response to mounting regulatory pressures and antitrust concerns regarding its closed exclusive ecosystem in the United States and Europe. Today, third-party developers can seamlessly access the iPhone’s Near Field Communication (NFC) chip and Secure Element, integrating contactless payment functionalities directly into their apps, independent of Apple Pay and Apple Wallet.
Despite the popularity and ease of use of NFC transactions, QR code payments remain a cost-effective and widely compatible payment alternative. Lower setup costs make them ideal for small businesses, street vendors, and independent workers, promoting financial inclusion in emerging economies. They are used in many countries at both national and cross-border levels.
QR code-based payment systems are especially popular in Asia. Thus, the Central Bank of Bangladesh has launched a trial of an interoperable QR code-based payments system, working regardless of customers’ account-keeping banks or organizations. Meanwhile, Singapore and Malaysia unified their separate QR merchant payment systems to provide sellers and consumers with a smoother and more efficient tool for making transactions. In India, a public sector Indian Bank has unveiled a QR code bill payment system linked to the unified payments interface (UPI) for Chamundeshwari Electricity Supply Corporation (CESC) to facilitate electricity bill settlement.
The popularity of QR code payments in many Asian countries is unlikely to be challenged by the iOS NFC access opening. As of November 2024, Apple’s iOS held approximately 17% of the mobile operating system market share in Asia. Although the adoption of this operating system varies across countries, Android remains the dominant OS in the broader market.
At the same time, to stay competitive amid the growing NFC popularity, fintech vendors offering QR code solutions should focus on accessibility and affordability and target small businesses and developing markets where low-cost solutions are in high demand.
